Base metals: The domestic RRR cut boosts confidence, and the price of base metals is expected to fluctuate upward. According to Wind, from September 11 to September 15, LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin prices changed by 2.17%, 0.69%, 1.71%, 3.07%, 1.45%. Overseas, according to Wind, the U.S. CPI for August was 3.7%, higher than the previous value of 3.2%. In this country, according to the People’s Bank of China, on September 15, the People’s Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.25 percentage points. Suggested concerns: Luoyang Molybdenum Industry (A+H), Cloud aluminum shares, Tianshan Aluminum, Aluminum of China (A+H), etc.
Steel: Rising prices and costs, narrowing margins. According to Wind, from September 11 to September 15, the price change of steel, iron ore, coke, scrap was 0.46%, 6.22%, 7.70%, flat, and the profit rate of steel mills fell 2.16 PCT to 42.86%. The cost is under pressure, and the landing of the production restriction policy in the later stage is concerned, and the macro stability policy is expected to significantly boost expectations and is expected to repair the valuation. Suggested concern: Valin Iron and Steel, Baosteel Shares, Jiulite special Material, Fushun Special Steel, etc.
Precious metals: Under the US employment resilience and inflation stickiness, the gold price is mainly affected by short-term shocks, and the medium and long-term upward expectations remain firm. According to Wind, between September 11 and September 15, COMEX gold rose 0.15% to $1,945.6 per ounce and the dollar index rose 0.26% to 105.34. Initial jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 9 were 220,000, compared with 225,000 expected, according to the Labor Department.
Us core CPI in August in line with expectations, slightly more than expected month on month, inflation stickiness is strong, superposition job market resilience, the short-term gold price is still dominated by shocks, but high interest rates and high debt investors to maintain the US economic marginal weak expectations, the Federal Reserve monetary policy is expected to gradually turn, the long-term upward trend of gold prices to remain firm. It is recommended to pay attention to: Yintai Gold, Shandong Gold (A+H), Zhaogold Mine (H), Zhongjin Gold, Xingye Silver Tin, Shengda Resources, Chifeng Gold, etc.
Energy metals: lithium ore and lithium salt prices are expected to gradually move into a healthy range. According to Wind, from September 11 to September 15, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell 6.08% to 185,500 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium hydroxide fell 5.49% to 172,000 yuan/ton. Upstream concentrate prices gradually downward, downstream apparent demand for reasonable replenishment of the main, lithium prices continue to pressure. In the future, we will pay attention to the uncertainty of the release of new production in the upstream and the expected difference in the downstream apparent demand, and the plate or stage expected improvement opportunities. Suggestions and concerns: Shengxin Lithium energy, Rongjie shares, Yongxing Materials, Huayou Cobalt industry, etc.
Small metal: molybdenum price oscillation, pay attention to the repair of ferromolybdenum steel in the later stage. According to Wind, from September 11 to September 15, the price of light rare earth praseodymium and dymium oxide fell 0.57% to 52,500 yuan/ton, the price of tungsten concentrate did not change to 121,000 yuan/ton, and the price of molybdenum concentrate fell 0.46% to 4315.00 yuan/ton. Demand for rare earth magnetic materials is picking up, and ferro molybdenum steel is expected to stabilize, which is expected to drive molybdenum prices up.
Post time: Sep-18-2023
